The charts that show the real estate cycle in full swing
House prices are rising almost everywhere. The following charts show this. 1. All but 5 cities in the continental United States saw rising house prices in the last 12 months. (CNBC in the US calls their graphic a “Recovery Watch” – which is ironic really, as the US recovered ages ago. It demonstrates that a lot of commentators and indeed investors are really just living in the past). 2. Every city in the UK recorded the same – apart...
Does this graph confirm that the low in commodity prices is in place?
In February, National Australia Bank suggested that house prices in Perth would continue to fall in 2016 because of weakness in commodity prices, as mining companies shed staff and the domestic economy continued to experience weak growth and high unemployment. Here is the story. The article notes the link between the commodity and housing markets – which is strong in regions and countries that are strong commodity producers (Australia, parts of the US and Canada, Latin America and much...
And so the cycle turns…as it has always done
In July, German lender, Commerzbank, sold two commercial real estate portfolios for around $2.9 billion. You can read about this here. It’s not a particularly remarkable story but I am bringing it to your attention because it’s an important part of the 18 year cycle, particularly the first half of the cycle – the de-leveraging process. Note some of the key facts in the article – all classic elements of the cycle: The bank had to be bailed out...
Would you like to work only 15 hours a week?
In 1930, as the world toiled through the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, to allay people’s fears about their economic future and, as he so eloquently put it to take wings into the future” in order to ask: “What can we reasonably expect the level of our economic life to be a hundred years hence?” In other words, he was peering into a crystal ball to imagine what things would be...
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