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Eurozone Crisis: Another Chapter in the Never-Ending Saga of Boom and Bust

Posted by on Feb 21, 2014 in 18 year real estate cycle, Topical news |

I recently wrote a guest entry for a well-respected blog hosted at the London School of Economics – Euro Crisis in the Press. Given the blog’s theme, I took the opportunity to examine the Eurozone crisis from the perspective of the 18 year economic cycle.  While most policy makers and financial commentators treat this crisis as a unique event, part of the euro’s adolescence which will ultimately get sorted out, we know better.  This is merely another chapter in an age old tale. The blog post can be read here. To see how this saga plays out age after age you need to understand the economic cycle, something we specialise in. We provide a blow-by-blow account of the 18 Year Cycle in our Report: The 18 Year Cycle Unveiled which can be purchased on our Reports page. You can also download our FREE e-book: 7 Reasons Why Investors Need to Understand the 18 Year Cycle by following this link and filling in the form. For further information about our research and services please get in touch....

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Why the coming cycle will be the biggest in history

Posted by on Feb 16, 2014 in 18 year real estate cycle, Forecasts, Kondratieff (Long) wave cycle |

Previous posts have described how the 18 year economic/real estate cycle operates.  In our stylised diagram illustrating how the cycle unfolds, we are of the view that Western economies have now been through its cyclical crash and recovery phase that lasts on average 4 years and are now in the first expansion of the cycle. The post examines some of the trends that will determine how large the next cycle will be.   How big will the next cycle be? We are of the view that this next cycle will be the biggest ever.  To say again: we think that more wealth will be created in the next 10-15 years than in any equivalent period in human history.  It’s going to be a period of enormous wealth creation.  We advise not paying much attention to those with a bearish outlook on the world economy. The normal expansionary phases of the economic cycle are going to benefit from the following growth-enhancing trends. 1. Relentless technological innovation The internet and personal computing have fundamentally altered the way we communicate, do business and interact socially.  But I think that this revolution has only just begun.  We are only just getting to the point where product and service design can can now be premised upon the widespread access to powerful mobile computing power, allied to high-speed interconnectedness of the web.  It’s at this point that the focus shifts from the development of better and faster access to the application of this technological power to our everyday lives.  In the not too distant future, our cars will drive (and park) themselves; computers will learn, and adapt to their environment as humans do; we may travel into space for a holiday; our medical professionals will have instant access to real time biomedical data and analysis of our vital signs. Pipe dreams some of these may be, but they indicate the scale of humanity’s creative potential in our present era. To take a more concrete example.  We are now starting to see the possibilities of this level of computing power applied to areas such as manufacturing, material science and so on – for example the development of “additive manufacturing”, otherwise known as 3-D printing.  For us, if the technology continues develop on its current trajectory, we do not think it an overstatement to suggest that we could be at the start of a second, computer-driven, Industrial Revolution that will radically alter not only the quality, speed of production and prevalence of highly customised goods but also how production itself is organised.  This has massive implications for the structure of our labour markets, the cost of production and so on. 2. Reduction in energy costs There is...

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